UCF’s offense has been bad. Really bad. Statistically and to the eye it has not worked well at all. Why is that? We have some thoughts.
UCF is 0-5. There is no going back and changing the circumstances. The Knights season is already a massive disappointment and it would take only a miracle for the Knights to make a bowl game and turn things around.
At this point, UCF would have to win its third straight American Conference championship to just reach a bowl game and finish at 7-5 or 6-6. If that happens, start the parade celebrating George O’Leary as a miracle worker.
Considering UCF lost to Furman and FIU at home and lost by 14 points to 2-2 Tulane (and 3-9 in 2014 Tulane), it is not looking like UCF will be playing in the postseason this year.
Sorry to break the news to anyone who has watched this team struggle it seems in every way. The Knights are what their record says they are.
So what has gone wrong? Why have the Knights fallen off so far?
There are a number of reasons. The favorite scapegoat is coach George O’Leary and his conservative play call. And, knowing O’Leary is not going anywhere seeing as he is the athletic director, the blame has fallen on new offensive coordinator Brent Key.
O’Leary promoted Key from offensive line coach after Charlie Taaffe retired this offseason. The move has clearly not worked out.
Coaching alone is not the reason UCF has struggled so mightily this season — 49.4 rushing yards per game (last in the nation) and 217.0 passing yards per game (73rd in the nation). The offense is just bad. And there are a number of reasons why.
1) Justin Holman’s injury
Cut off the head of the snake, and the body will shrivel.
The Knights had a lot to replace at wide receiver. They had questions at running back only made more alarming by the disappearance of William Stanback. Holman was the key cog that could hold this whole thing together. He was a strong player who grew into the starter’s role last year as the team won a share of the conference title.
This was going to be his team. This was his time to take the full leadership mantle.
His play in the FIU game was certainly uninspiring in the second half as conservative play calling prevented UCF from expanding its lead. Holman passed 23 for 34 for 249 yards and two touchdowns. He looked confident and ready to win some games singlehandedly.
Well, he could not defeat FIU singlehandedly so maybe not that good. It was clear the offense needed him. So it is a good thing he will be back under center this weekend against UConn.
2) Injuries
Holman’s injury is just the first of a long string of injuries that have crippled the Knights. An injury to center Joey Grant before the season and then an injury to leading receiver Jordan Akins added to the trouble to an already depleted team.
They have come fast and furious and have forced some unexpected players into bigger roles. Bo Schneider and Tyler Harris, both freshman and Schneider a true freshman, had to start the last three games including at South Carolina. Both have shown flashes but neither was quite ready to manage a team particularly without a strong running game or experienced receivers.
It was a perfect storm of a bad time to throw freshmen quarterback into the fire against a couple pretty strong teams in Stanford and South Carolina.
The injuries have gotten so bad, UCF receivers coach Sean Beckton has put it simply to Shannon Green of the Orlando Sentinel this is as bad as he has seen it ever:
“I’ve never been in a situation like this in all my 20 years plus coaching. . . . You expect certain things to happen during the year, but never this severe. But as a coach, you gotta keep working with the guys that you have and trying to get those guys to play at their maximum, whether they’re scholarship guys or walk-ons players. They’re on the team for a reason and when somebody goes down, my thing is the next man has got to step up.”
The team and its talent base has been pretty decimated. It is tough for any team to recover from that. And the record says it all.
3) No run game
When a team has an inexperienced quarterback, usually they will rely on the run game for support to ease him into the transition. That would have been much easier to do with William Stanback providing experience in the backfield.
But Stanback was absent at the beginning of the season and then was dismissed from the team. That left Taj McGowan and C.J. Jones to handle the majority of the run game. Both are underclassmen — McGowan is a freshman and Jones is a redshirt freshman — playing behind an inexperienced line that has struggled at times.
UCF has had to nearly abandon the run. The Knights have 49.4 rushing yards per game on 146 rushing attempts against 190 passing attempts. The Knights are simply not getting any push or any balance offensively. That is a bad sign for a team struggling so much at quarterback.
There just is not anything positive to say about this run game. It has put inordinate pressure on the young quarterbacks to perform and they have struggled themselves because of it — 52.3 percent completion percentage and nine interceptions between Schneider and Harris.
4) Sanctions beginning to hurt
Add the injuries and the absences on top of sanctions that stripped UCF of scholarships and the Knights are getting pretty desperate. They are relying on some walk on players to provide some major minutes all while trying to remain competitive.
It has put the Knights and their coaching staff in a tricky situation. It should not be used as an excuse. These players are on the team and wearing the uniform, but they have definitely been asked to do more than was expected of them.
George O’Leary remains optimistic about this group, but as he told Shannon Owens of the Orlando Sentinel about former walk on wide receiver Chris Johnson it is a learning process:
“Everybody’s yelling at me for 81 [Johnson] getting caught from behind, but he’s a walk-on. The 62-yard gain, he fumbles the ball [and is stripped,] but he’s a kid that is, we’re just down numbers. He’s a kid that I did put on scholarship this summer and he’s helped us out in a number of areas, but again, that’s what we’re playing with right now and that’s what you gotta do.”
Johnson was the guy who had the big reception that seemed to be a sure touchdown erased when he was caught from behind and fumbled it to set up Tulane’s blowout. The Knights went from tying the game to down two scores in the course of a few key plays.
5) The Offensive Line
The Knights’ offensive line has struggled too. And ultimately that is where things start offensively for any team.
According to Football Study Hall, the Knights rank poorly in almost every rushing statistic that would account for the offensively line. The run game is bad.
The Knights’ 26.0 percent opportunity rate — rushes of more than five yards, with the theory being that the offensive line is responsible for the first five yards generally — is 127th in the nation. In other words, the Knights have very little opportunity even to get their ground game going. The offensive line is not giving the backs enough time to get past them.
In the passing game, the Knights give up 109.9 sack rate, well above the national average set at 100. This offensive line is struggling, and there is no way around it.
Put all these five elements together and you have an offense that is struggling to move the ball at all. The reasons seem pretty clear. Getting Justin Holman back this week will almost certainly help the team turn things around some. But it is going to take a lot for the Knights to take that step up and get back tot he level they were expected to perform.
