The college football season marches closer to it send and there are major changes to some of Orlando’s bowl games as the Playoff takes shape.
All right, another week of college football is in the books. And we are getting another week closer to bowl season. Just a few short weeks remain to sort out the College Football Playoff and some big games are on the horizon.
All this, of course, effects who ends up coming to Orlando in the end. The fact the Big Ten seems in the running for two teams in New Years’ Six Bowl Games plus Ohio State in the College Football Playoff could leave the Citrus Bowl with slim pickings.
But the conference is unusually deep this year and that is not such a bad thing. Things are still setting up for a nice bowl season in Orlando with some very attractive matchups for hometown fans and for those looking to travel to Orlando.
Of course, everything is subject to change in the topsy-turvy world of college football. There are still a lot of games to be played and some major matchups this week with bowl implications.
Once again, we are projecting the Orlando bowl games as they would stand today. This is not a prediction of what would happen, although we will note if things are likely to change.
College Football Playoff
There were not changes to the top four in the College Football Playoff this week so it remains the same quartet.
It is worth noting, and this will play for the future of Orlando’s bowl games, Ohio State plays No. 19 Michigan State this week and No. 14 Michigan next week with a likely match against No. 5 Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. All those complaints about the Buckeyes’ schedule should end
Orange Bowl (National Semifinal): (1) Clemson vs. (4) Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal): (2) Alabama vs. (3) Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: (6) Oklahoma State vs. (8) Florida
Rose Bowl: (5) Iowa vs. (11) Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: (7) Oklahoma vs. (9) Michigan State
Peach Bowl: (10) Baylor vs. (16) Navy
Baylor’s loss certainly made some changes to the New Years’ Six Bowl Games. But essentially they are very much the same as far as the Big Ten is concerned. For now, at least. Iowa is still in line to go to the Rose Bowl and Michigan State to go to one of the other New Years Bowl Games. As things stand now, Michigan is the first team outside the New Years’ Six Bowl Games (more on that in a bit)
But that could change dramatically. Michigan State plays Ohio State. Michigan will play Ohio State. And Iowa will likely play Ohio State. So the Big Ten’s presence in the New Years’ Six is very much in flux. If the Big Ten does not get three teams in these games — essentially, if the conference does not get one team into the College Football Playoff — then everyone moves down a slot below.
Last week, there were not three Big Ten teams in the New Years’ Six. So the conference is moving up some.
Additionally, the dream of two Florida teams in Orlando appears to be on some thin ice. The Gators are still in the New Years Six, but appear to have at least one loss remaining on their schedule. I would still believe the Gators are a good possibility for the Citrus Bowl at the end of the day.
If Florida loses to No. 14 Florida State, there is a decent chance the Seminoles make the New Years Six and leave the Russell Athletic Bowl to select another ACC team. Again, more on that in a bit.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
The Citrus Bowl gets first pick of Big Ten and SEC schools after the College Football Playoff and have to be salivating over the potential matchup. They appear to be doing so on Twitter already:
First-time meeting between Tigers and Wolverines? A Michigan man vs. Michigan men? Harbaugh vs. The Mad Hatter? 🙌🙌🙌 https://t.co/J3rMgbb313
— Cheez-It Citrus Bowl (@CitrusBowl) November 18, 2015
The Citrus Bowl would love to host Michigan for Jim Harbaugh’s first bowl game. It is a storyline that is extremely juicy and would sell a lot of tickets. Michigan has not played in Orlando since the team was carrying Lloyd Carr off the field after defeating the Heisman-winning Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators.
This spot has flipped between Michigan and Michigan State depending on how many Big Ten teams reach the New Years’ Six. That should still be the case. If the choice is given to the Citrus Bowl at the end of the day, they might still pick the Wolverines for the game. Especially considering who is left to them this week.
The SEC team is going to continue to be an intriguing choice for the bowl game with many options available — especially with the potential for Florida to lose a few games and be available for selection.
LSU’s surprising loss to Arkansas on Saturday dropped the team out of the New Years’ Six and has raised some hilariously serious questions about LSU and the team moving forward. The Les Miles rumors are frankly ridiculous.
Leonard Fournette should still be the Heisman front runner (certainly a finalist) despite two bad games against Alabama and Arkansas. The Tigers have a tough game at Mississippi, coming off a bye, this week. But it could be a chance to get back on track.
The Tigers have always traveled well to Orlando (shout out to the LSU watch parties at Harry Buffalo) and would create a really great matchup for the Wolverines. Miles is a Michigan alum and longtime coveted coach for Wolverines fans . . . that is, until now.
Either way, this would be an extremely appealing matchup.
Projections: (12) Michigan vs. (15) LSU
Russell Athletic Bowl
The Russell Athletic Bowl should feel pretty confident with who it will get in the Big 12. The good teams dry up pretty quickly.
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has not looked at the Big 12 kindly. And last week started the conference’s big matchup period — TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Baylor started last week.
As things currently stand, three of those teams would be in the New Years’ Six Bowl games, but none in the College Football Playoff. It is very realistic to see one or two of them fall out as the attrition within the conference begins.
The Alamo Bowl gets first pick of Big 12 teams and would take TCU in the current scenario. That leaves next in the standings 4-6 Texas, 6-5 Texas Tech and 5-4 West Virginia. A lot is left to determine.
Texas would be a dream despite the team’s down year to bring to Orlando because of that brand power. But the Longhorns still play the Bears and are not likely to be bowl eligible.
Between Texas Tech and West Virginia, West Virginia is likely the better pick. The Mountaineers should pick up three more wins before the end of the season and have a strong offense.
Today the pick is West Virginia, but it would not surprise me to see one of the Big 12 teams fall out of the New Years’ Six and give the Russell Athletic Bowl one of those big-name teams.
The Russell Athletic Bowl gets first pick of ACC teams after the New Years’ Six. That would be Florida State right now. But that could very very easily change. The Seminoles are a natural fit and should be the team the bowl game targets.
Should the Seminoles not be available, I think North Carolina would be a great replacement. The Tar Heels have another high-powered offense that is entertaining to watch. The Tar Heels should want to come to Orlando and bring some fans down I-95 to see their team.
They should remain to hold out hope on Florida State and hope the Big 12 picks itself off to send a TCU or maybe even a Baylor to Orlando.
Projection: (14) Florida State vs. West Virginia
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Like I have said throughout these projections, figuring out the AAC and Sun Belt bowl berths is a bit like throwing darts and seeing where things land. These conferences assign bowl berths solely on fit.
The AAC should get one of its teams into the New Years’ Six. Right now it is Navy, but that could change on Black Friday when Houston hosts Navy. The Cougars are currently unbeaten.
So taking a look at the AAC bowl landscape, it seems pretty certain Memphis, Houston and Temple will fight for the two bowl spots against the power five teams. I like South Florida to stay near home at the St. Petersburg Bowl (the Bulls have not been to their hometown bowl since 2008).
The Cure Bowl is going to be picking between already-bowl eligible Cincinnati and five-win Tulsa and Connecticut. The Bearcats would be the best of that crew with a high-powered offense and a lot of potential strength to bring to the matchup.
Since this is probably the lowest on the marquee, I think Tulsa is going to end up being the pick to come to Orlando. Cincinnati will have a trip to Orlando next year as part of American action and Connecticut came this year. That should not preclude an AAC East team ever to come to the Cure Bowl, but I think they want to maximize attendance.
Maybe Tulsa, being the most Western team, goes to the Hawaii Bowl (where I have Temple right now). I think that could get Cincinnati to Orlando. I do not think Connecticut is an option because the team played in Orlando already this year, making it tough for fans to make a second trip to the city, rather than further south to Boca or Miami.
On the Sun Belt side, they have given fourth selection to the Cure Bowl out of the conference.
The choices will come down to five-win South Alabama and 4-5 Louisiana-Lafayette.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have been a bowl stalwart with four consecutive years heading to the New Orleans Bowl with four consecutive 9-4 years. That is not happening this year. South Alabama has had a somewhat surprising season to stick near the six-win mark. They have a difficult pair of games to end the season in Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, but should clinch bowl eligibility against Georgia State this weekend.
I think South Alabama is the pick. This is a team that went to its first bowl game last year. Located in Mobile, Ala., it is a relatively short trip to Orlando (you can do the drive down I-10 to the Turnpike). it seems like a good fit and the best team available for the Cure Bowl to select.
Projection: Tulsa vs. South Alabama
