The picture is getting a little clearer over which teams might come to Orlando for bowl season. In this week’s Orlando Bowl Projections, we select the teams
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
If you are a college football fan, the season is super serious this week. Bowl berths do not even matter for many of the games this week. It is rivalry week for the nation as these games sometimes matter more than the rest of the season.
The Playoff picture is looking pretty clear — at least the paths to the College Football Playoff for four of the teams — so long as the teams in position keep winning. There are plenty of opportunities for the apple cart to get rattled and the whole thing to turn over.
That goes double at the top, as we will see in just a few moments.
The landscape is clearing, but not much.
For the Orlando Bowl games, a lot still has to be decided in the end. Obviously the College Football Playoff and New Years Six will play a role in deciding who comes to Orlando. But it already seems like Orlando can focus in on a few teams for its two major bowl games at least.
As always, these projections are a snap shot of today. I will note where something is probably going to change — take the Big Ten’s heavy presence in the New Years Six — and what will likely happen. The projections for today are going to change dramatically.
This exercise is just to see which teams are in position for now.
College Football Playoff
First, of course, we have to start with the College Football Playoff and New Years Six to set the baseline. Here things are sure to get a little screwy with the way the rankings set up this week. It is going to throw off our projections from what is actually going to happen.
In other words, some of these teams will head to head and that will cause major changes entering next week.
First the projections:
Goodyear Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal): (2) Alabama vs. (3) Oklahoma
Capital One Orange Bowl (National Semifinal): (1) Clemson vs. (4) Iowa
Fiesta Bowl: (6) Notre Dame vs. (8) Ohio State
Rose Bowl Game: (5) Michigan State vs. (9) Stanford
Allstate Sugar Bowl: (7) Baylor vs. (12) Florida
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: (10) Michigan vs. (15) Navy
As you can see there will be some major changes next week. Michigan takes on Ohio State and the loser almost assuredly falls out of the New Years Six and into the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl slot.
It appears pretty likely the Big Ten will get two teams in the New Years Six at least — Iowa unless the team loses to Nebraska this week and either Ohio State or Michigan State — and quite possibly three. That affects who comes to Orlando.
Florida is also unusually low for a New Years Six bowl game too. The Gators play the Seminoles this week and could fall some too. However, the Sugar Bowl is contractually obligated to take an SEC team. So unless Alabama loses to Auburn or Florida in the SEC Championship Game, Florida appears to be next in line.
That is really unfortunate for at least one deserving team for one of these bowl berths.
It is still possible with No. 13 Florida State defeating Florida this Saturday to move into the New Years Six consideration.
For now, let’s move forward with these projections.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
As noted, the loser of Ohio State-Michigan this weekend is the most likely candidate to arrive in Orlando from the Big Ten.
Michigan State is also a likely candidate should the team fall to Penn State this weekend. That does not feel likely that the Citrus Bowl would take Michigan State over Ohio State or Michigan despite head to head wins over both.
Ohio State and Michigan just provide too good stories for the Citrus Bowl. It would be nearly impossible to pass those teams up with the potential for incredible storylines.
Then again, the SEC opponent may not be a team worth pitting Michigan or Ohio State against.
As noted previously, Florida is in line to get to the Sugar Bowl with a win over Florida State. There is an outside chance Ole Miss could sneak into the New Years Six. If that is the case, then the Gators versus the Buckeyes or the Wolverines would be an incredible Citrus Bowl matchup.
If Florida is not available, the options become Ole Miss and a slumping LSU. I do not believe the Citrus Bowl would take Ole Miss considering the team will return to Orlando at the beginning of next season for the inaugural Orlando Kickoff Classic.
If Florida is unavailable, I think LSU is the pick.
As things stand with the current standings — knowing full well one of Ohio State or Michigan is going to fall — I think the Citrus Bowl takes a surprising Northwestern team from the Big Ten.
Projection: LSU vs. (16) Northwestern
Russell Athletic Bowl
Considering how the standings are shaking out, the Russell Athletic Bowl has to feel very good about its selection choices. It would be nice to have Oklahoma or Baylor available to go to the Alamo Bowl. What the Russell Athletic does not want is a third Big 12 team in the New Years Six Bowl Games.
There are some very good Big 12 options.
So too are the ACC options.
Either Florida State, a hometown favorite, loses to Florida and is definitely the pick to come to Orlando or Florida State wins, gets into a New Years Six Bowl, and the high-powered offense of ACC division champion North Carolina comes to town (depending on whether UNC wins the ACC Championship Game against Clemson or not, which may just push Florida State to Orlando anyway).
Essentially an Oklahoma State win over Oklahoma would mean TCU goes to the Alamo Bowl leaving Russell Athletic to pick from a less attractive West Virginia team rather than TCU.
Yes, the Russell Athletic Bowl should be a very exciting game.
So on to who will be my picks as the standings sit right now.
Florida State seems perfectly in line to end up in Orlando for this bowl game. TCU too is in line to end up here depending on how many teams get to the New Years Six.
Projection: (13) Florida State vs. (19) TCU
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Now for the the newest edition to the Orlando bowl scene. As I have said every week, it is a bit difficult to say exactly what the criteria will be in making this selection. I suspect the Cure Bowl has last pick of American teams and the third or fourth pick of Sun Belt teams.
As things stand entering this week’s games, I have Tulsa and South Alabama as the two teams heading to Orlando for this game.
Tulsa might be a candidate to go to Hawai’i, but I imagine another team will request the trip out to Hawai’i for that bowl game. I do not think Connecticut will take this bowl game because of their trip to Orlando earlier in the year to play UCF.
Cincinnati remains a possibility, but I get the feeling the American will want to put them in a higher profile bowl game. Tulsa is a fine pick though. The Golden Hurricane can provide an entertaining game.
On the Sun Belt side, the conference may not have enough bowl eligible teams to fill its bowl obligations. It is still a bit unclear how the bowl will fill these slots. The Jaguars are at 5-5 and have two games remaining to get that sixth win. If they do, they should head to Orlando.
Projection: Tulsa vs. South Alabama
