We have reached the final week of the college football regular season! Sunday we will know who will be coming to Orlando. Here are our bowl projections.
The college football picture is looking much clearer these days. With just one more week of the regular season remaining, the picture has started to clear up for the Playoff leaving the bowl games below them a better idea of who will be coming and who will be available.
The two main Orlando bowl games have a pretty clear picture of the teams available to them. The Cure Bowl? The Cure Bowl will be involved in the mess that is figuring out which 5-7 teams will be bowl eligible since the American and likely the Sun Belt will not have enough bowl eligible teams.
That could actually be some benefit to that bowl game in the long run, getting a higher profile or higher conference team in to fill the spot.
Florida Citrus Sports’ two bowl games will feature some high-profile teams and create a matchup that will be very enticing. It should make for some good matchups.
As always, this is a snapshot of what the bowl picture looks like today. But I will note the teams in consideration for the bowl berth with Sunday being the day for bowl selections.
As always, we start with the College Football Playoff to set the table:
New Years Six
Cotton Bowl: (2) Alabama vs. (3) Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: (1) Clemson vs. (4) Iowa
Fiesta Bowl: (5) Michigan State vs. (19) Houston
Rose Bowl: (6) Ohio State vs. (7) Stanford
Sugar Bowl: (11) TCU vs. (13) Ole Miss
Peach Bowl: (8) Notre Dame vs. (9) Florida State
A lot is still subject to change with conference championship games. I am still not 100 percent sure the Peach Bowl matchup with Notre Dame and Florida State, two ACC-affiliated teams, is allowed. But it would be a great matchup between two teams many consider rivals (especially after last year’s game). In either case, it feels like Florida State is guaranteed a New Years Six berth unless North Carolina defeats Clemson. If that happens, Florida State falls out with Notre Dame staying in the New Years Six.
A lot can still happen.
Obviously North Carolina and USC can climb into the New Years Six with wins this weekend too and throw a lot of things into chaos. A Florida win likely pushes Ole Miss out of the New Years Six.
These are all teams the Orlando bowl games can consider (except USC).
What seems certain right now is that three Big Ten teams will be in the New Years Six (three teams the Citrus Bowl will not have available). It also seems certain Alabama and Clemson will go to a New Years Six game even with losses this weekend.
The only thing that would change who is available to the Orlando bowl games is Florida or North Carolina winning their respective conference championship games.
On to the Orlando bowl games:
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
The Citrus Bowl has all but said they are picking between Michigan and Northwestern for their Big Ten bowl slot. It seems pretty certain those two teams are the ones the bowl will decide on.
Again, even though the Wildcats have a better record, the allure of the Wolverines and the story of Jim Harbaugh’s first bowl game is too tantalizing. Michigan’s prestige is going to win the day over Northwestern here.
Especially when considering the potential matchup.
Even with a Florida loss to Alabama this weekend, Florida is an obvious choice. The Gators will easily sell their allotment and fill the stadium.
The other choices are Tennessee, LSU and Georgia. LSU and Georgia seem to be ending the season on lows, especially Georgia firing Mark Richt. The Volunteers have had a strong end to the season and have really come into their own. They would be a really strong pick.
The Gators though seem still to be better though. The brand name and local draw would be big, especially with a marquee opponent. Florida fans are still feeling very good about the team’s season.
Neither Florida nor Michigan has been to the Citrus Bowl since 2008 — when Michigan defeated Tim Tebow and Florida in overtime and carried soon-to-be-fired Lloyd Carr off the field.
This is just too much to pass up for any bowl game, particularly one in Florida. The storylines write themselves and it is an easy choice with the teams available.
Projection: (15) Michigan vs. (18) Florida
Russell Athletic Bowl
This matchup between the first pick of the ACC and the second pick of the Big 12 has been really intriguing throughout these bowl projections. Florida State’s big win and Oklahoma State’s loss continues to make this an intriguing matchup.
The dream of having both Florida teams playing their bowl games in Orlando appears over at this point. The Seminoles seem locked into a New Years Six game unless the Tar Heels win the ACC and defeat the Tigers.
The choice with Florida State gone is still pretty easy. North Carolina had a fantastic season and should be getting a shot at the Playoff with a win over Clemson. The committee does not feel the same. But the Tar Heels’ record and general play this year deserves a more serious look.
The choice in the Big 12 continues to be intriguing too.
TCU is no longer in line for this bowl game, having climbed into the New Years Six discussion. Baylor seems likely to get the pick for the Alamo Bowl leaving Oklahoma State as the last remaining ranked Big 12 team available.
The Cowboys had a great season going before back-to-back losses to the Bears and the Sooners in big rivalry games.
Oklahoma State is still well on its way to a solid showing for its season in Orlando.
Projection: (10) North Carolina vs. (17) Oklahoma State
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Things get tricky when we get to the AutoNation Cure Bowl. The matchup is originally supposed to be a matchup of the American and the Sun Belt. Neither may have enough bowl-eligible teams to send to the bowl game.
Some of that is going to get sorted out this week in the Sun Belt for sure.
The American season is done though and the conference had eight bowl-eligible teams for its nine bowl slots.
There is no ordering for American bowl games, so one of those eight teams very well could end up in Orlando. It depends on what the conference wants to do and whether teams prefer playing in Orlando or in Boca Raton or Miami or the Bahamas.
The teams in the running for these last American bowl spots are Cincinnati, USF, Connecticut and Tulsa. Three of those four are in the American East with UCF and both USF and Connecticut took trips to Orlando already this year. Cincinnati and Tulsa come to town next season.
It is hard to get a grip on this bowl game. How much does the American want to push this bowl game, it being the first time the game is being played. They could give up the Hawai’i Bowl with more West Coast teams bowl eligible to play BYU.
It is hard to pin down this spot.
I am projecting the American allows the geography game to play out unless a team specifically requests Hawai’i. I project San Jose State goes to the Hawai’i Bowl for the American and Tulsa ends up in the Cure Bowl.
On the American side, the situation is going down to the last game. Likely the bowl will have to take a 5-7 team like Rice to fill the bowl game.
Both Georgia State and South Alabama need wins this week to get bowl eligibility. Both will be heavy underdogs too. Georgia State plays Georgia Southern this weekend and South Alabama plays Appalachian State. Should they both win, I go with Georgia State over South Alabama. But if one of those teams win, Cure Bowl gets selection priority over the Arizona Bowl and the conference’s secondary agreement to fill that spot.
Projection: Tulsa vs. Georgia State
