The 2015 season was one to forget for the UCF Knights in just about every way imaginable. The Knights failed to win a game, obviously and that left the program kind of drifting in the dark.
The 2015-16 offseason though has been a good one.
The hiring of Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost has been met with praise throughout the community as he has promised to bring the Oregon speed down to Florida and awaken the sleeping giant of UCF. He attacked recruiting hard and established a much larger presence for UCF in the state.
He was bold and audacious in many ways as he tries to build this program back up.
Baby steps first though, the Knights have to win a game on the field first.
It is hard to project what UCF is going to do on the field. No one is quite sure exactly how the pieces will fit into place. And last year the program’s lack of depth at key positions was laid bare as injuries worked their way through the roster — notably at quarterback and wide receiver. There is a lot that needs improving.
But that does not mean there is not hope.
Bill Connelly of Football Outsiders devised a projection of his S&P+ ranking system. Using past results, previous recruiting classes and returning production, he calculated how teams might fare in 2016. Considering how little we know about how UCF’s roster and how it fits with the Oregon tempo system and the humongous outlier of both the AAC title in 2014 and the winless season in 2015, it is hard to get a handle on UCF.
Still as one of the youngest teams in the nation, having any kind of forward momentum after last year’s disaster can be encouraging.
Connelly has UCF just sneaking into the top-100 at No. 99, liking the incoming recruiting class and talent ready to take over at UCF.
That is certainly not bowl bound for any school, but it is a good start for a team that had zero wins last year and finished 125th in S&P+ overall with just 1.1 second-order wins (the number of wins statistics would project a team to have).
The Knights are more or less starting from ground zero in this season.
At least now they have something to aspire to.
