Spring football is getting ready to start all around the country in the next few weeks. Some schools have already begun to get it started before spring break, finishing off after exams and spring break takes place. College football is slowly wafting through the air.
Orlando will get a fever of it when UCF’s spring practice starts soon and the team seems set to announce its spring football game will take place April 16 as part of a weekend-long #Fast-ival for Scott Frost’s first year.
And, of course, Florida State is bringing its spring football game to the Orlando Citrus Bowl on April 9.
College football is right around the corner. Or at least some form of it. Enough to make us excited again. It feels like August will be here soon — less than half a year away now!
National polls will not be out until August or a little bit closer to the season.
There is one measure out already to help provide some predictions for the season.
SB Nation and Football Outsiders’ Bill Connelly devised a projected rankings for the 2016 season, taking a look at how the team has performed in recruiting, returning talent and recent history. It is enough to satiate our thirst.
A while back, I linked to it to say the projections show UCF would show some improvement and crack the top-100. Now, I want to take it a step forward and use these measures to project who might be coming to Orlando for the Orlando bowl games.
It is never too early for bowl projections, right?
Going through the rankings Connelly made straight through does not tell us a whole lot about the season. It does not take into account schedules (for instance, Alabama and LSU are Nos. 1 and 2 and they likely would not) or the potential surprises we see ever college football season.
It does give us an early look though at the season ahead and who might be coming to Orlando in December and January. Here is at least a snapshot of the teams expected to compete for the coveted Orlando bowl spots.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
Projected Matchup: Ohio State vs. Georgia
The marquee college football game in Orlando has actually not seen Ohio State come through its doors since 1995. The Buckeyes have competed for plenty of national and Big Ten championships since then, but never got the invitation to Orlando.
Pretty amazing, huh?
The way things might shake out with the Buckeyes perhaps taking a step back with some graduations and normal attrition and the SEC seemingly ready to send a lot of teams into the New Years Six, Ohio State could be in position to return to the City Beautiful.
That scenario seems pretty unlikely in the end. If Ohio State is in any way decent, the team is such a good draw that it will inevitably get a New Years Six invite somewhere.
The other Big Ten teams in the running would be Michigan State and Penn State. The Nittany Lions lose quarterback Christian Hackenberg but James Franklin has torn up the recruiting field and has his team projected to finish No. 29 based on this model. It does not seem likely the Nittany Lions are there.
There is a better chance that a rebuilding Michigan State is the next best option. The Spartans have made a habit of coming to Orlando and they would be a solid pick.
The SEC pick will have its own intrigue. This model really likes SEC teams and Georgia gets slotted here.
The Bulldogs have a new coach in Kirby Smart and a fair bit of optimism. Not to mention talent returning from a team that underachieved last year.
More likely, the season will play out and a team like LSU or Tennessee ends up here.
The Volunteers, from an on-field perspective at least, would be really intriguing. They are the early favorites to win the SEC East and take a step up. Of course, that has been said for a long time with this team.
Russell Athletic Bowl
Projection: Pittsburgh vs. TCU
The ACC always has a surprise or two up its sleeve and so it might be more difficult to project who will emerge from the hodgepodge that is this conference.
Clemson and Florida State are the favorites again. North Carolina, last year’s participant, is likely taking a step back but in this tier. Louisville and Pitt are the other two teams who could make that step up.
Louisville is set to head to Orlando for the kickoff classic in 2017 against Alabama so maybe Florida Citrus Sports holds off on them and goes with Pitt in this situation.
Pitt came in No. 29 in Connelly’s and return a good chunk of its production from last year. There is a chance the Panthers are that surprise team in the ACC this year.
On the Big 12 side, TCU was one of the favorites to head to Orlando for much of the season. Baylor’s late-season injuries probably allowed TCU to take that step up and reach the Alamo Bowl — and boy wasn’t that game fun.
The Horned Frogs lose Trevone Boykin, but Gary Patterson always just reloads and replaces. TCU should still be able to put up points and compete in the Big 12. This would be a perfect and predictable slot for them.
Texas or Oklahoma State could also be in the running. The Longhorns have had a slow build and there is certainly some frustration with that among the booster. But Texas still has talent and could take that next step up.
The Big 12 is always fun every year.
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Projection: Connecticut vs. Troy
Good luck making any long-term projections with these conferences. Both the American and the Sun Belt nearly failed to send a bowl eligible team to this game. We are getting to the dregs of the bowl season here unfortunately — and San Jose State and Georgia State put on a fantastic game for the inaugural edition.
Going straight down the line with Connelly’s preseason projections, Connecticut and Troy are the teams in line. But that is extremely fluid.
Tulsa or East Carolina are also possibilities as is Arkansas State. Or any number of teams within these conferences. They are just too hard to predict.
Just like the whole college football season is. So take this with every grain of salt you can find. And just keep counting down the days to August and the start of the season.
