The American Athletic Conference had a down year this year as the team’s gather together for the annual conference tournament in Orlando.
The best team in the conference is ineligible for postseason play as SMU faces NCAA sanctions. The Mustangs would almost certainly be in the NCAA Tournament regardless of their result if they could play in this tournament. So they are a non-factor.
After SMU, the American Conference gets much more muddied.
Cincinnati, Connecituct and Memphis all struggled mightily both in non-conference and in conference, failing to rise to the top of the conference and secure their places in the NCAA Tournament.
Temple became the surprise team in the league thanks to the emergence of scoring phenom Quenton DeCosey. The Owls hold the top seed in the American Conference Tournament beginning Thursday at Amway Center.
Houston emerged as a sneaky team but not one that has a wowing resume despite finishing second in the conference.
No, this potentially strong conference had something of a dud of a season. A season that could leave it with just one or two tournament teams when it had the potential to have so much more.
Looking at KenPom rankings, the top-seeded Owls may not be in the tournament without a conference tournament win. They are ranked No. 86. Cincinnati is No. 32 with Tulsa (No. 42) and Houston (No. 49) in the top 50. Connecticut is No. 31.
Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com has just three teams from the American in his tournament field — Temple (as an 11-seed), Cincinnati (as a 9-seed) and Connecticut (as an 11-seed). The Huskies are Lunardi’s last team in at the moment (Monday night). Tulsa is among the first four out.
That is all to say it feels like only Cincinnati has any sort of safety in the tournament field. Where do the other teams stand? What do they have to do? Why are they out of the tournament field?
Take a look at the contenders:
No. 1 Temple (20-10, 14-4)
Temple was a bit of a surprise throughout the season in finishing in first place in the American. Quenton DeCosey was a stellar scorer throughout the year, averaging 15.7 points per game. He is likely a first-team all-conference player this year.
The Owls have only one bad loss — to the Pirates, a team they could see Friday in Orlando in their first game of the tournament — and scored a lot of key conference wins. The weakness in their resume are no good non-conference wins with plenty of opportunities.
Still, the Owls won the conference and should pick up a few more victories. Temple should be in the tournament regardless of how things shake out, provided the team does not lose Friday to East Carolina or USF, but the team could use a trip to the finals to shore things up.
No. 2 Houston (22-8, 12-6)
Houston is rated No. 49 in KenPom and so the team is likely on the tournament bubble. The Cougars likely need two wins and to reach the final to assure their trip to the tournament. Just making the semifinals is not enough — a win over the UCF/Tulane winner is not enough.
Looking at Houston’s resume, losses to Grand Canyon and USF stand out like sore thumbs. The best non-conference win came against a star-studded but under achieving LSU. The Cougars though beat all the best teams in the American. As we are seeing that does not carry a ton of currency.
The Cougars have to score one more nice win. That means reaching the championship game. That is just to sniff the tournament at this point. There is nothing really pulling Houston in. The Cougars need a win over the Golden Hurricane to solidify the resume (and maybe knock one team out).
No. 3 Tulsa (20-10, 12-6)
Tulsa has long been a team considered on the bubble. Yet the Golden Hurricane have never quite gotten themselves in.
Their first game comes against a solid, but still not great Memphis team. A decent trap game for a team that needs at least one win if not two — a win over Houston would mean two good wins and a shot at the championship.
Tulsa has wins over Wichita State and Iona in non-conference. The Hurricanes did not suffer any bad losses in conference play and beat the a lot of the best teams in the conference at least once. That is a formula that should get the team in. The Hurricanes though do not pass the eye test. Two wins would seem to get the team in — with Friday’s game against Houston and not UCF/Tulane.
No. 4 Cincinnati (22-9, 12-6)
Cincinnati is probably the team feeling the most safe about its NCAA Tournament prospects at the moment. There are no losses to teams worse than 100 in the RPI and a few solid wins out of conference — George Washington and VCU. More importantly, there are no bad losses even in conference play.
The Bearcats have solid guard play from Troy Caupain and forward Gary Clark. This is a team that has a firm grasp of who it is and can execute well.
Cincinnati might be the sneaky favorite to win the entire tournament. The team’s road will not be easy having to play Connecticut in the quarterfinals and then likely Temple in the semifinal. It would have been better to be in the bottom bracket.
No. 5 Connecticut (21-10, 11-7)
The Connecticut Huskies seem to be a lock for the tournament. Especially if they can get past the Bearcats in the first round. That will be the big test for them.
Connecticut played an always difficult schedule and scored wins over Michigan, Ohio State and Texas. The Huskies are only fighting to get in because of their inconsistent play in conference. They lost only to teams ahead of them in the standings so they lack a marquee win.
But Connecticut is a name brand. Kevin Ollie has laid a good foundation and this is a team that can compete with the very best in the country and make some noise in a tournament setting. Thursday’s game against Cincinnati could be one of the best of the entire week.
No. 6 Memphis (17-14, 8-10)
Memphis is probably the biggest disappointment in the entire conference. With a great big man in Shaq Goodwin and a win over Ohio State and no bad losses in non-conference, the Tigers were all set.
Conference season turned into a disaster. Losses to South Florida and East Carolina are almost complete death knells for this team and its tournament chances.
Coach Josh Pastner is in hot water in Memphis and for good reason after this disappointing season. The Tigers have not been able to play consistently well. And it is at this stage where the Tigers have to win the tournament to get in.
