UCF is trying very hard to move on from a disastrous 0-12 season last year. After back-to-back American Conference championship seasons, the bottom just came out. It was clear there was a coach sort of on his way out, a clear lack of depth after injuries to key areas and then a general panic as thing seemed to unravel.
It was clear the Knights were at rock bottom. And there is nowhere to go but up.
This offseason has been an offseason of change. But it has built tons of excitement. No doubt Scott Frost’s arrival has injected some much-needed energy into the Knights.
What that will mean for the 2016 season though is extremely uncertain.
Now the Knights are no longer a pro-style team. It is not about dropping the quarterback in the pocket and letting him make a decision with the ball or pounding the ball on the ground. UCF failed massively at both throughout last season.
UCF is now all about speed — #UCFast. Getting athletes in space and letting them make plays while lining up for the next play as quickly as possible, putting pressure on the defense to react quick and get up for the next play even quicker.
It is still unclear how this will all work. The spring game did not illuminate too much about the offense. The defense was well ahead of it.
The Knights though cannot do worse than 0-12 — and 1.1 second order wins, meaning the Knights statistically should have won at least one game. There has to be some return to the mean.
That is certainly expected this season. But the early expectations are for modest gains with the potential for more.
Bill Connelly of SBNation completed his preview of the American Conference and has UCF in the bottom tier of the conference for this upcoming season. That comes with this caveat:
One of these three will be bowling this year. I just can’t decide which.
UCF has potential for a fast bounceback after last season’s collapse, SMU’s offense could be as awesome as its defense is terrible, and if Willie Fritz is able to establish an offensive rhythm, the defense he inherits might be good enough to turn Tulane around quickly.
Certainly the projections are based off last year’s disaster of a season. That is just the most recent data Connelly has to work off of to project forward to the season.
Currently Connelly projects the Knights to finish with four wins total based on his statistical models. It is, of course, really hard to tell much of anything. Even if the team were returning last year’s coaching staff and style, a little bit of regression to the mean after last year’s disappointment would be expected. Four wins seems about right as a baseline for recovery from last year.
It may take a while for UCF to return to its former glory. Scott Frost still has to establish his way of doing things at UCF and bring in his new players. The new attitude and style will still have to take some time to take root.
It should be a better season for the Knights though. No doubt about that. A season probably measured more against the progress the team makes rather than against the standings.
Picking up a few wins (or a win) will be nice and help build confidence as the program builds itself back up.
