UCF picked the wrong time to halt the momentum the program had built. The Big 12 is considering expansion again the Knights’ struggles could leave them out.
The college football season is nearly over (just one game remaining) and the winds of change are always blowing when it comes to college football. Nothing ever seems static.
And that seems doubly so for the Big 12.
The conference did not get left out of the College Football Playoff this time around, but it would seem yet again Oklahoma getting a week off and not playing in a conference championship game hurt potential playoff seeding. The Sooners went from No. 3 to No. 4 in the final rankings. That was the difference between playing Alabama in the Cotton Bowl to playing Clemson in the Orange Bowl.
That may not have mattered much to Oklahoma in the end, but the point was not lost again on the Big 12. It was not part of the national conversation on the final weekend of the season in the same way the other three playoff participants were. And they are one really good SEC season away or a Stanford win over Northwestern in the opening week from being left out of the Playoff entirely.
So naturally, again, the Big 12 is thinking about expansion to regain that conference championship game and regain that showcase game for the final weekend — that last showcase for the committee.
The NCAA schools will consider changing the rules for conferences to have a conference championship game in January, Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated reported last week. There are a few proposals on the table, but mainly the Big 12 wants a conference championship game at 10 teams. There are proposals to require conferences to split into divisions to avoid gerrymandered championship games featuring the two teams with the best chance of entering the playoff.
Should this proposal fail though, the Big 12 could easily and readily expand again, bringing UCF squarely into focus:
Here’s the prevailing thought around the Big 12: If its legislation proposal gets shot down, there’s a roughly 70% chance the league will expand during the next year or two in order to get a title game. If the legislation passes, there’s less than a 50% chance of imminent change in the form of the Big 12 adding new members. There are many other variables in play, but this is arguably the biggest.
And that brings UCF back into play.
There is no secret the Big 12 and UCF have flirted with each other before when it comes to conference expansion. That was back when UCF seemed to have limitless possibilities after a Fiesta Bowl win over Baylor.
Things have decidedly crashed back down to earth. Really in one season at that.
After splitting the American Conference title last year, UCF went winless last season. The feeling around the program could not be worse even with a new head coach in former Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost.
No one knows just what this program can do or what it can be. And despite the access to the Central Florida television market, nothing is certain when it comes to expansion.
Having a bad season at this important juncture when Big 12 expansion seems rip on the table, that could be a major problem. Thamel analyzed the potential for UCF to get in on this round of expansion.
Central Florida and South Florida: Considering the ripe markets (Orlando and Tampa) and boundless football potential, there is strikingly little momentum for these schools. Things could change, but neither is in the serious discussion now. (Someday, if the league goes to 14 teams, they might get more consideration.)
And this is the problem of UCF taking such an overwhelming step back this past season. There is always this opportunity to take that step up — and that would mean a financial step up too along with the prestige in being in a Power Five conference. And the Knights have to always be in position to take advantage.
This past year left UCF with a missed opportunity in so many ways. It was a frustrating experience for the Knights in so many ways.
It does not mean UCF is missing out on its opportunity to step up. That may still come down the road. But with college football powers still finding its footing after the Playoff’s establishment, the opportunity is always there.
Rebuilding the program is paramount for UCF as it moves forward.
