The Orlando Magic’s formula for winning has been a difficult one. When things were rolling in December, the Magic defended well working together and had multiple scorers in double figures every night. The Magic could count on each other and someone always seemed to step up.
At that point of the season there was a major constant. A player who helped make the team operate and directed the team. His presence made the team better and kept the machine rolling.
That was Elfrid Payton. His ankle injury in mid-December was something of a turning point of the season as the defense began to crater and Payton returned a somewhat different player. He has not been able to recapture the play from the early point of the season.
The NBA has become a point guard’s league. So much of the game’s tempo and attack is run from the ball handler, usually the point guard. And Payton was set to be the Magic’s point guard for the future.
This season, Payton has had plenty of struggles. They have been well documented in many different areas. There have been plenty of times Payton has been found somewhat wanting on both ends of the floor.
Elfrid Payton’s scoring average is up (from 8.9 points to 10.7 points per game) and his assists are only slightly down (6.5 assists to 6.1 assists per game). His field goal shooting has improved (from 43.3 percent effective field goal percentage to 45.5 percent this year).
By those numbers Payton has seemingly taken a step forward. Then you dig a little deeper.
According to Basketball-Reference, Payton posts a -1.5 box plus-minus. This means the Magic are 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse when Payton is on the floor compared to an average player. Defensively, Payton has a -0.4 defensive box plus-minus after a positive defensive box plus-minus his rookie year.
Payton is no offensive wizard either. The Magic score 0.67 points per possessions when Payton is the ball handler in pick and rolls. That is wildly inefficient. Finding ways for Payton to score is difficult and he is not even creating many scoring opportunities outside of that.
Payton averages 12.0 assist opportunities per game so despite his pick and roll struggles, he does get the ball moving.
Payton has taken a clear step back as he grasps the nuances of playing point guard in the NBA, as I wrote for Orlando Magic Daily.
These numbers are concerning when evaluating Payton’s season. This was a young player viewed as part of the Magic’s core and someone who would grow. Instead he hit a road block this year — certainly slowed by an ankle injury in December and now the elbow injury Payton is slowly making his way back from.
When Payton is at his best though, the Magic can be very very good.
“The way the game is played today, it is the most important position,” coach Scott Skiles said of his point guard earlier this month. “If you don’t have quality play there, it is very difficult to win. He’s learning. With him, it’s just a matter of his mental focus and energy. When he has those things, he usually has a good game because he can effect a game in a bunch of different ways.”
The Magic though need Elfrid Payton. As Skiles said, the point guard is the most important position on the floor in many ways. And Payton has struggled to be consistent this year.
So far this year, the Magic just are not much better with Payton on the floor — 100.6 offensive rating/104.0 defensive rating with Payton on the floor, both below the Magic’s season averages. It was not even that much different before Christmas when the Magic were rolling.
It is a hard problem to reel in. And one the Magic have to resolve.
Many of Orlando’s struggles defensively have started at the head of the snake, so to speak. Payton has struggled to keep his man in front of him and that has stressed the back line of the defense.
When he is on at both ends of the floor though, the Magic are a really good basketball team. Or, at least, they can be.
Having such an important player though struggle on both ends of the floor and take a step back with how he fits in with the team has certainly played a role for the Magic in what has come to be looked at as a disappointing season.
There are now questions at point guard. And Payton will have to spend the rest of this season proving his value and into his third season to find his place.
