The inaugural AutoNation Cure Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers and San Jose State Spartans will come down to how San Jose State defends the pass.
It is OK if no one has heard of either San Jose State or Georgia State.
The Spartans play in the far-flung Mountain West. Unless you are staying up until midnight or later glued to CBS Sports Network (the network that will broadcast Saturday’s AutoNation Cure Bowl), it is not likely you saw many of their games.
The Panthers played just one game on TV all year. The rest of their games were on ESPN3. You had to want Georgia State football to watch it.
The first myth to dispel about these two teams is that they are devoid of all talent. The numbers suggest otherwise.
San Jose State held a halftime lead at Oregon State earlier this year and have a great running back in Tyler Ervin. Ervin rushed for 1,469 yards and 13 touchdowns as the Spartans posted the 53rd best rush offense according to Football Outsiders’ S&P+.
Georgia State did not have any brushes with a power-five team that were that successful, but they do have a passing attack led by Nick Arbuckle and his 346.7 passing yards per game with 26 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. The Panthers have the 42nd best pass attack according to Football Outsiders’ S&P+.
These are teams that have the capability of putting up points. The tale of this tape though will come with that pass attack from Georgia State.
Arbuckle has been able to sling the ball around and help Georgia State racks up tons of yards. He has some big weapons in freshman Penny Hart — 1,085 receiving yards, 90.4 yards per game and eight touchdowns — and Robert Davis and Keith Rucker. Donovan Harden too has picked up yards.
There is a system in place for Georgia State that helps produce yards and put up gaudy statistics.
San Jose State has a defense for that.
The Spartans gave up just 153.6 yards per game through the air. Their weakness as a defense came on the ground, something the Panthers just do not do — 32.25 attempts per game for 103.9 yards per game on the ground and no featured back.
Maurice McKnight, Jimmy Pruitt and Cleveland Wallace, Jr. were all All-Mountain West team honorable mentions. The Spartans had the 55th best pass defense according to S&P+.
The way these two teams push and pull in the pass game will likely determine the Cure Bowl.
“Their defense is really well coached,” Arbuckle said. “Everything you see on film from them and their statistics so far really speak to their coaching and discipline and their player’s ability to take the coaching and transfer it on to the field. They have really good technique; they are really well disciplined. They are good athletes. They just do a lot of things right. A lot of times we have seen defenses on film that are good defenses, but will have mental lapses and make mistakes and let receivers run wide open. You don’t see that a lot from their defense. They are really well-taught and they just do a tremendous job.”
The Panthers have not faced many pass defenses this good this year. The best team they faced was Georgia Southern in that do-or-die finale at No. 53. The Panthers picked up 346 passing yards in that game. Against Oregon, Georgia State still picked up 318 passing yards.
The Panthers have passed for less than 300 yards in just two games — the opener against Charlotte and against Appalachian State.
San Jose State’s pass defense has been stingy.
The Spartans faced the 41st pass offense in Auburn and gave up just 108 passing yards. They faced the 33rd pass offense in BYU and gave up 293 passing yards.
San Jose state did not give up more than 300 yards passing in any game this year. Passing for a lot of yards against this Spartans team is not something that happened much this year.
“They have a very athletic corner; couple of corners, but one in particular,” Georgia State coach Trent Miles said. “I don’t really know names; I know more numbers, No. 8 (Jimmy Pruitt). Their linebacker is a very good player, No. 4 (Christian Tago). Again, they’re well-coached. They will be where they’re supposed to be. From our side of it, we’ve just got to do what we do. We’re not going to invent a whole new offense in two weeks. We have to get the ball to our strength, hide our weaknesses and go play and compete.”
Georgia State is likely to get its yards. There will be plays where the Panthers break this defense. There is too much talent and the system works too well for San Jose State to stop it.
The talent level seems to be high enough for the Spartans to win this matchup.
Throw in the wild card of All-American punter Michael Carrizosa and the odds are stacked that Georgia State will have to travel a long way to score and to win.
San Jose State can score itself, averaging 28.0 points per game behind the rushing prowess of Tyler Ervin.
The pass defense does enough of its job and the Spartans come cross country and win the Cure Bowl.
Prediction: San Jose State 35, Georgia State 28
